On the other hand, well, this is England, old bean. And being rational has never really had much to do with it. More than ever in the age of tribal celebrity and online Southgate-truthers, every call and every cut must be unpacked for its wider significance, even when this adds up to little more than rationalising two entirely sensible decisions.
Rashford has every chance of coming again, ideally after a season when he scores more than seven league goals. But he is also a one-man industry, a cultural object, a daily online rage magnet. For these reasons, plus the simple fact of having been picked a lot in the past, he will be portrayed as the more significant omission.
Otherwise, for anyone who just wants Southgate to make the right calls at this late stage, the main feeling will be one of relief. Picking either player would have been an error from a football perspective. As far as outside noise goes, it would have been a disaster, fuel to every hostile critic and a source of crowing validation for the sceptical periphery, even if those critics are essentially critiquing what they wish to see, as opposed to the cold reality.
Henderson first then. This is a significant cut, if only because of things that now lie in the past. Henderson won 53 of his 81 caps under Southgate. He has been vice-captain, played in a final and a semi, and has been a key part of the Gareth-era shedding of the old cloak of never-ending fear.
This is praise, not criticism. Henderson is an overachiever, a winning personality. But he has also been there for every big defeat, bypassed even at his peak by better midfielders, from Luka Modric to Frenkie de Jong. This year he has played 12 games for Ajax, three of which Ajax won. The decision to take the money from/embark on a heroic moral redemption of Saudi Arabia [delete according to level of delusion] was reversed. But it was still a badly timed decision. Time for someone else to have a go.
An entire career has been played out against that pressure to fix something, to re-embody the glorious past. Early elevation plus obvious talent fed this hunger. Rashford was treated like a prodigy. The youngest England player at a European Championship. The fewest club appearances ever before making an England debut. His most notable achievements since are to nudge the government into reluctantly helping children and to be exceptionally famous.
Being powerful and bold is not always about rolling up your sleeves, and making a show of just, like, how powerful and bold you are. Southgate may look like the inventor of an inspirational new cordless vacuum cleaner. But he is also the steeliest and most single-minded of England managers.
