With Joe Biden looking for re-election Democrats feared they were looking at an electoral catastrophe. Now, with Biden dropping out and Vice-President Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket, it suddenly feels like it is Donald Trump who is staring at possible defeat.
The liberal film-maker and Democratic whisperer Michael Moore says he's more optimistic than he has ever been since Trump stepped on to the escalator in Trump Tower to announce his first run for the presidency eight years ago.
"This isn't just a sugar-high or what [recovering] heroin addicts call a pink cloud," Moore says. "It was so depressing for so many weeks and then it was instantly not depressing. I am hopeful now but it's ours to blow - and we have a history of blowing it."
Moore, 70, has in recent years become something of an electoral sage. He predicted Donald Trump's victory in 2016, in part because of the sense of political-cultural superiority Democrats emanated and because he had noticed that the campaign was fearful of inspiring Maga supporters. He predicted, too, that Democrats would buck the trend and be fine in the 2022 midterms.
In this election cycle he is in some ways in line with the pollster Nate Silver, who recently said that "the strategy of the Harris campaign should be to triangulate the strategy of Hillary 2016, the Harris 2020 primary campaign, and Biden 2024, and do the exact opposite."
But Moore says he understands why Democrats are nervous that the Harris-Walz ticket could come apart, though it shows no current signs of doing so, particularly if Harris gets tarred with Biden's unpopular "Bidenomics" or responsibility for his full-throated support of Israel's war in Gaza.
"Biden, sadly, is going to be remembered for funding the war in Gaza and providing the armaments to Netanyahu, not arms for protecting Israel, but extra money to kill Palestinian civilians," Moore says. He remains "saddened and surprised" that Biden, who had refused to meet Netanyahu last September, flew to Tel Aviv after the 7 October Hamas cross-border attack and hugged him.
"You can say what's in a hug?" he says. "But ladies and gentlemen, let me introduce Neville Chamberlain to you. It doesn't take much for history to see that in the moment you needed to display courage you did the opposite."
But he's cautiously optimistic that Harris is signaling a change of direction. She did not pick as expected the Pennsylvania governor, Josh Shapiro, who had harshly called out student protesters against the war in Gaza and settled a former employee's claim that she was sexually harassed by a senior aide.
Harris, he applauds, went against the conventional wisdom, upending the predictions of many TV pundits, and chose "this guy from the midwest, a football coach who had offered to be adviser to the gay student group. It's pretty stunning."
And while as vice-president Harris has no power to speak against Biden on Israel, Harris has made her feelings plain. She declined to sit in on Netanyahu's address to Congress, which echoed Pope Urban II's 1095 call for the first crusade, instead traveling to a Zeta Phi Beta sorority meeting in Indianapolis.
The first days of the Harris-Walz ticket have shown precisely the change of direction that Moore has argued for. The ominous but complicated "threat to democracy" anti-Trump platform has been dropped for "threat to freedom". Trump's folk story confabulations resist fact-checking, so that's been refined to a kind of medieval textual charm, "weird".
Jibes over JD Vance's "couch capers" and eyeliner discussions work in much the same way. What Harris-Walz are doing is much as Moore advocated when he offered the Clinton campaign "satirical support" to come up with lines that would get under Trump's thin skin, especially in a televised debate.
"I think I'm going to see what I was hoping for for eight years," he says. "Once anybody gets under that thin skin anything can happen. On live TV? Trump could explode, start talking like a 12-year-old, though no offense to 12-year-olds, or get up and leave."
But didn't Democrats bet on the Biden-Trump debate being a success? And the Trump prosecution in New York? The Republican candidate's polling and fundraising went up after both.
"It's a holding pattern until she gets on that stage with him. I understand why people are nervous it might be a sugar high but Harris and Walz are people of substance. They're being slow and cautious enough to get it together. It's just been a couple of weeks. They are going to have to tell us what they're going to do and hopefully come up with the right thing. And there will be mistakes."
As the Harris-Walz campaign "humanize" the ticket it is clear that the November election represents, on the Democratic side, a generational shift.
"I'm so happy to hear Gen Z and X are over half the vote because it's called facts and data," Moore says, pointing out that the number of boomers over 65 who have died since 2016 is exceeded by Gen Z and millennials who have become eligible to vote. "How many of them do you think are going around in hats saying Make America Great Again"? They've never known it to be "great", let alone "again".
"It's not just a cultural shift - it's a generational shift. The boomers may not be the No 1 voters in this election. And that's why Gaza is so important. Young people hate war and they're totally against Biden and his support of the war." Harris, he says, needs to tap into "affordable housing, student debt, peace and the dying planet".
His prescription? "Do weird and cringe until the debate and then nail him," Moore said. "But nail him with irony, satire and a simple way to point out the beyond weird absolute idiocy and insanity of what these two men are talking about. Reach them on a commonsense level so it doesn't matter if you're Democrat or Republican."
